Examining Christie’s collapse
First, let’s look at the data. On September 1, Quinnipiac gave us this set of numbers:
| Name | Total | Rep | Dem | Ind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christie | 47 | 86 | 15 | 46 |
| Corzine | 37 | 8 | 74 | 30 |
| Daggett | 9 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
| Other | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
On Sept. 30, they gave us this set of numbers:
| Name | Total | Rep | Dem | Ind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christie | 43 | 83 | 10 | 45 |
| Corzine | 39 | 6 | 71 | 32 |
| Daggett | 12 | 9 | 11 | 16 |
| Other | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 |
Of course, everyone is focused on the fact that Christie’s lead was cut from ten points to four. It’s significant. But even more significant than the loss of six points is the way in which it has been lost.
Christie loses three points among fellow Republicans, but Corzine lost three points among Democrats. That’s pretty much a wash, because Democrats outnumber Republicans in New Jersey. So it doesn’t really mean anything. Especially since Daggett’s support among Republicans grew from 4 to 9 and support among Democrats grew from 7 to 11.
Also notable is that Christie’s support among Democrats has dropped from 15 to 10. Just as notable is the fact that Corzine was not the recipient of that movement…as I noted, he lost three points himself.
So what is behind the Christie collapse? I’d say it is two things. First, the Mulshine Republicans are getting tired of hearing so much nothing from Christie. Second, the “Christie Democrats” are proving that they are really just “anti-Corzine Democrats.” That means that the “Christie collapse” will likely not continue. Or at least, will not be quite so dramatic.
To determine what happens next, we need to look at a couple of things. First, Christie lost support in all categories, and therefore he lost overall support. Second, Corzine lost support among all partisans, but gained overall because two points worth of support among unaffiliated voters outweighs two points worth of Republicans and three points worth of Democrats. Third, among undecided voters, the number of Republicans remains unchanged, the number of unaffiliated voters ticked down one point, but the number of overall undecided voters remained unchanged – because the number of undecided Democrats rose three points.
Expect the Republicans to go with their candidate, and expect Democrats to continue to avoid Corzine. That means that Corzine’s only hope would be to clean house among the unaffiliated voters. I honestly don’t see how he could manage to do that.
As before, I continue to call this election for Christie, by three – but without breaking the 50 percent mark.
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